Stochastic bivariate time series models of waves in the North Sea and their application in simulation-based design     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

In this paper, we present and evaluate three long-term wave models for application in simulation-based design of ships and marine structures. Designers and researchers often rely on historical weather data as a source for ocean area characteristics based on hindcast datasets or in-situ measurements. The limited access and size of historical datasets reduces repeatability of simulations and analyses, making it difficult to assess the sampling variability of performance and loads on marine vessels and structures. Markov, VAR and VARMA wave models, producing independent long-term time series of significant wave height (H_s) and spectral peak period (T_p), is presented as possible solutions to this problem. The models are tested and compared by addressing how the models affect interpretation of design concepts and the ability to replicate statistical and physical characteristics of the wave process. Our results show that the VAR and VARMA models perform sufficiently in describing design performance, but does not capture the physical process fully. The Markov model is found to perform worst of the tested models in the applied tests, especially for measures covering several consecutive sea states.  相似文献   

Experimental study on a sampling technique based on a freeze-sediments valve for deep-sea microorganism     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

Deep-sea microorganism research has become a hot topic in life science, owing to its special value in high pressure and low temperature environment. If not kept the in-situ low temperature and high pressure, it will cause the microorganism to lose its activity and lead to a waste of resources. A freeze-sediments valve presents a promising solution to maintain the low temperature and high pressure in situ, improve the success rate of sampling and shorten the sampling time. A series of experiments were conducted to characterize the freeze-sediments valve, including the sampling time without leakage, adaptation to different sediments and the effect of the length, etc. Most important of all, temperature change of sediments is observed in all experiments. Experimental results indicated that the freeze-sediments valve was formed in 5 min without leakage and the freeze-sediments valve could be applied to different sediments without limitations on sediments type and mineral content. Considering the pressure retaining capacity and formation time of freeze-sediments valve, it was found that the freeze-sediments valve with a length of 60–80 mm has good pressure retaining capacity whose value was 41.3–48.4 Mpa and short formation time which was 5 min. Precooling the sampler could be used to shorten the sampling time in the actual environment application. This sampling technique can play a vital role in maintaining in-situ low temperature at −2 to −4 ° Celsius in all the experiments. According to the tests, the sampling technique based on the freeze-sediments valve had the potential to solve the problem of keeping in-situ temperature, low sampling success rate and long sampling time in the future.  相似文献   

时间尺度重构EEMD-GRNN改进模型预测PM2.5的研究     

符海月  张祎婷 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(7):1132-1142

合理构建PM_2.5浓度预测模型是科学、准确地预测PM_2.5浓度变化的关键。传统PM_2.5预测EEMD-GRNN模型具有较好的预测精度,但是存在过于关注研究数据本身而忽略其物理意义的不足。本研究基于南京市2014-2017年PM_2.5浓度时间序列数据,分析PM_2.5浓度多尺度变化特征及其对气象因子和大气污染因子的尺度响应,基于时间尺度重构进行EEMD-GRNN模型的改进与实证研究。南京市样本数据PM_2.5浓度变化表现为明显的天际尺度和月际尺度,从重构尺度（天际、月际）构建GRNN模型更具有现实意义;同时,PM_2.5对PM₁₀、NO₂、O₃、RH、MinT等因子存在多尺度响应效应,以其作为GRNN模型中的输入变量更具有时间序列上的解释意义。改进后的EEMD-GRNN模型具有更高的PM_2.5浓度预测精度,MAE、MAPE、RMSE和R²分别为6.17、18.41%、8.32和0.95,而传统EEMD-GRNN模型的模型有效性检验结果分别为8.37、27.56%、11.56、0.91。对于高浓度天（PM_2.5浓度大于100 μg/m³）的预测,改进模型更是全面优于传统EEMD-GRNN模型,MAPE为12.02%,相较于传统模型提高了9.03%。  相似文献   

Wetlands and low-gradient topography are associated with longer hydrologic transit times in Precambrian Shield headwater catchments     

Daniel Lane  Colin P.R. McCarter  Murray Richardson  Chris McConnell  Tim Field  Huaxia Yao  George Arhonditsis  Carl P.J. Mitchell 《水文研究》2020,34(3):598-614

The estimation of hydrologic transit times in a catchment provides insights into the integrated effects of water storage, mixing dynamics, and runoff generation processes. There has been limited effort to estimate transit times in southern boreal Precambrian Shield landscapes, which are characteristically heterogeneous with surface cover including till, thin soils, bedrock outcrops, and depressional wetland features that play contrasting hydrologic roles. This study presents approximately 3.5 years of precipitation and streamflow water isotope data and estimates mean transit times (MTTs) and the young water fraction (p_y) across six small catchments in the Muskoka-Haliburton region of south-central Ontario. The main objectives were to define a typical range of MTTs for headwater catchments in this region and to identify landscape variables that best explain differences in MTTs/p_y using airborne light detection and ranging and digital terrain analysis. Of the transit time distributions, the two parallel linear reservoir and gamma distributions best describe the hydrology of these catchments, particularly because of their ability to capture more extreme changes related to events such as snowmelt. The estimated MTTs, regardless of the modelling approach or distribution used, are positively associated with the percent wetland area and negatively with mean slope in the catchments. In this landscape, low-gradient features such as wetlands increase catchment scale water storage when antecedent conditions are dryer and decrease transit times when there is a moisture surplus, which plausibly explains the increases in MTTs and mean annual runoff from catchments with significant coverage of these landscape features.  相似文献   

Analysis of Anomalous Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the September 16th, 2019 Zhangye MS5.0 Earthquake, Gansu, China     

MA Haiping  WANG Qian  ZHANG Bo  WU Shanyi  WANG Pengtao  DOU Xiying  LI Minjuan 《中国地震研究》2020,34(2):210-218

To study the crustal movement in the vicinity of the epicenter before the Zhangye M_S5.0 earthquake in 2019, the characteristics of crustal deformation before the earthquake are discussed through the GPS velocity field analysis based on the CMONOC data observed from GPS. The baseline time series between two continuous GPS stations and the strain time series of an area among several stations are analyzed in the epicenter area. The resulting time series of baseline azimuth around the epicenter reflects that the energy of the fault in the northern margin of Qilian Mountain is accumulated continuously before 2017. Besides, the movement trend of azimuth slows down after 2017, indicating the stress accumulation on both sides of the seismogenic fault zone has reached a certain degree. The first shear strain and EW-direction linear strain in the epicentral area of the Zhangye M_S5.0 earthquake remain steady after 2017, and the surface strain rate decreases gradually after 2016. It is illustrated that there is an obvious deformation loss at the epicentral region three years before the earthquake, indicating that a certain degree of strain energy is accumulated in this area before the earthquake.  相似文献   

建筑抗震实时混合试验时滞补偿方法研究综述          下载免费PDF全文

刘洪波  刘洁 《地震工程学报》2020,42(6):1361-1368

时滞补偿是建筑抗震实时混合试验的重要问题。文章对时滞补偿方法的研究进行总结，将时滞补偿方法分为基于时间的位移预测时滞补偿方法、基于反馈力的位移预测时滞补偿方法、基于加载系统模型求逆的时滞补偿方法、基于控制理论的时滞补偿方法和基于集成理念的综合补偿方法。  相似文献   

PTP协议在广电时间同步网中的应用研究          下载免费PDF全文

权雨  彭良福  何永青 《全球定位系统》2020,45(1):99-104

随着广电行业的飞速发展,以串行数字接口(SDI)基带信号为基础技术架构的传统电视信号已经很难满足未来技术发展和业务扩展的需求．得益于现代通信技术的迅速发展以及即将到来的万物互联的5G时代,广电行业也将采用IP化技术来构建新的网络系统．处在向IP化发展的过渡期,广电IP化目前还存在一些亟待解决的问题．为了解决广电系统网络中需要更高精度的同步信号来完成时间同步的问题,本文利用精确时间协议（PTP）时间同步技术在专用以太网中完成时间同步组网,搭建了测试环境并对测试数据进行了分析．测试结果表明,相较于传统的网络时间协议（NTP）时间同步技术,输出PTP信号的准确度能够达到亚微秒量级,完全满足广电行业IP化数字电视系统时间同步信号的高精度需求．   相似文献   

2013年南斯科舍海岭M_W7.8地震的多点震源机制反演          下载免费PDF全文

张喆  许力生 《地球物理学报》2020,63(8):2978-2998

2013年11月17日，在南极南奥克尼群岛北、南极板块与斯科舍板块之间发生了一次M_W7.8级地震（2013年南斯科舍海岭M_W7.8地震），我们利用全球分布的长周期和宽频带地震记录反演确定了这次地震随时间和空间变化的震源机制，验证了提出的一种多点震源机制反演的新方法.首先利用长周期记录的W震相反演了这次地震的矩心矩张量解并利用体波提取了视震源时间函数，同时利用台阵反投影技术从宽频带记录中获得了这次地震的高频源的时空分布，然后基于矩心矩张量解、视震源时间函数以及高频源的时空分布，实现了采用新方法对2013年南斯科舍海岭M_W7.8地震的多点震源机制反演.矩心矩张量解表明，地震矩心在44.50°W/60.18°S，矩心深度19 km，半持续时间49 s，释放标量地震矩4.71×10²⁰ N·m，发震断层走向104°，倾角54°，滑动角8°.视震源时间函数清楚地揭示了地震矩随时间变化的方位依赖性，总体上可以将时间过程分为前60 s和后50 s两个阶段，但前60 s可细分为两次子事件.根据台阵反投影结果，这次地震为沿海沟从西到东的单侧破裂，破裂长度达311 km，可以分为5次子事件，能量释放的峰值点依次为13 s、30 s、51 s、64 s和84 s，平均破裂速度分别为0.6 km·s^-1、2.6 km·s^-1、2.3 km·s^-1、2.8 km·s^-1和3 km·s^-1.多点震源机制反演显示，5次子事件的矩震级分别为M_W7.57，M_W7.48，M_W6.80，M_W7.53和M_W7.08，半持续时间依次为21 s，17 s，6 s，16 s和8 s，走向分别为95°，105°，81°，98°和98°，倾角依次为57°，49°，86°，46°和64°，滑动角-9°，1°，-17°，13°和-4°.这些在震源机制、能量释放以及持续时间方面的变化都是当地构造和应力环境复杂性的反映.  相似文献   

Efficient strong motion duration of pulse-like records for nonlinear structural analyses     

Constantinos C. Repapis  Petros P. Mimoglou  Vicky V. Dimakopoulou  Ioannis N. Psycharis  Ioannis M. Taflampas 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(5):479-497

The special interest produced by near-field directivity records and their effect on structural response has given a new significance in the velocity time history, its pulse-like content, and relevant parameters and indices. Recent research has shown that directivity pulses inherent in these records govern the linear and the nonlinear response of a wide range of structures. Based on this observation, it is suggested in this paper that a truncated ground motion, limited to the duration of the predominant velocity pulse, can be efficiently used to predict the structural response, instead of the base motion with the total duration, reducing significantly the required runtimes. The proposed methodology is verified for a series of medium to high rise reinforced concrete buildings, for which nonlinear time-history analyses are performed for a vast suite of pulse-like near-field records applied as base excitations with their total duration and the proposed truncated one. Comparison of the results for the response displacements and forces shows very good agreement, permitting the acceptance of the pulse duration as the efficient strong motion time interval of the original record, which determines the response and, thus, it can be used for nonlinear structural analyses.  相似文献   

Multimodal water age distributions and the challenge of complex hydrological landscapes     

Nicolas B. Rodriguez  Paolo Benettin  Julian Klaus 《水文研究》2020,34(12):2707-2724

  相似文献